Since Marxism concluded that only labor can produce new value, and this is a critical point of marxist political economics. I am going to make my own judgement by recovering the related financial knowledges.
Asume marxism theory is correct, then the value of bitcoin is defined by the social necessary labor time needed to "mine" bitcoins, this includes the constant capital: electricity, cost of computers, bitcoin mining softwares and Internet access; and the variable capital: mining workers's labor time.
Considering the bitcoins can be produced almost at no cost if the algorithm is not a hard computing problem and without the total bitcoin number limit, the social necessary labor time of bitcoin almost equals zero. This means bitcoin are almost the same value as paper based currency, which itself has no value, but is only accepted by some goverment to exchange any thing equals the face value. The we have the following propositions:
currency value = face value = can be exchanged with any commodity the goverment has with the same value
bitcoin value = face value = can be exchanged with any commodity the bitcoin community has with the same value
So, instead of increasing bitcoins by the bitcoin network, to maintain a steady value of bitcoins, it should backed by real value possessed by bitcoin community-- such as programming hours, hosting service, ebay items etc. It's like virtual money, but the amount is a predictable computer program result, and the exchange rate with US dollar can be determined by:
1. value possessed by bitcoin community and amount of bitcoins, which determin the real "use value" of bitcoin
2. exchange value of US dollar ( such as 50 dollar = 1 programming hour of one hacker )
3. demand and supply between US dollar and bitcoin
4. There is no 4. :)
Let's try to validate above statements by reviewing:
1. With other conditions keep unchanged, if bitcoin amount is kept up with the total real value which can be provided by the community, then the value represented by bitcoin is steady. This requires the bitcoin network ( the "Sky Net" of bitcoin ) only produce new bitcoins when it needs to buy real new value from the community ( not the old value-- old value already exchanged by bitcoins). Like the Fed bank buy US government's bonds with new USD, and the government pay USD to anyone selling commodity to it. ( The amount of USD needed by the market is always less than the total value of commodity in the market, as USD is M1 of currency, the M1 formular can be found in any textbook of finance ). In practice, it may happens like that: Hacker A has coded a unix tool for 2 hrs, suppose the market value for this 2 hrs is 100 bitcoins, then customer B loan 100 bitcoins from bank C, bank C mines 100 bitcoins with no cost, but only a 100 bitcoin credit record in B's bank statement, then B buys this tool and accurally pay A 100 bitcoins. That is, the more people loan from bitcoin bank to buy new commodities, the more new bitcoins should be mined from nowhere. In bitcoin community, anyone can be a bitcoin bank, only if other users in this community trust them -- I will only trust someone who has enough wealth and very good bank operating reputation.
2. With other conditions keep unchanged, if only US dollar inflats, then one bitcoin can buy more US dollars, the bitcoin exchange rate will go high against USD.
3. With other conditions keep unchanged, if only more people need bitcoins instead of USD, then exchange value of bitcoin ( price of bitcoin in USD) goes up.
Next, I'll wait for anyone who can provide value statements with a Demand based Value Theory. Or continue provide more practical and accurate formulas of bitcoin exchange rate.
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